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MMXI: CAC40 and to 4500 points in 2011!?

The year 2010 ends, and finally the worst has been avoided.
The euro area has demonstrated its fragility, strength spread to too many countries have little money and too different from the core formed around Germany and Benelux. The expansion continues still, as at 23 o'clock tonight, Estonia will officially adopt the euro and will be the 17th country to share this money: Welcome to Estonia's large family! Here
the final outcome of the main indices and major assets: The CAC40 pales, as this is one of the worst annual performance of developed market economies.

- DAX30: +16%
-S & P 500: +12.78%
-Footsie100: +9%
-Nikkei225: -3.01%
- CAC40: -3.34%

For information, the main indices of the Middle Kingdom:
-Hang Seng: +5.32%
-Shanghai: -14.31%

-EUR/USD: -7.23%
-Crude Oil: 15%
-Gold: +28%
-Silver: 80 %


Here, after these few figures, forecasts Marc Touati, an economist I Ralay time to time on my blog, always very honest, trustworthy, as well as any economist can not be asked whether what the future holds to perfection.


My best wishes, financial success but not limited appointments MMXI right here, on Twitter, Lyon and elsewhere ...

Drever Olivetti Prt100

Merry Christmas!

And thank you to the U.S. government to inform us on the itinerary of Father Christmas!
http://santa.lanl.gov/

Hyatt Collection Replacement Shades

Comments: EUR / USD rebound attempt from $ 1.3070

After falling steadily since the $ 1.3500, the pair attempts to stabilize after several rebounds from 1.3070-1.3100, where is the moving average of 200 sessions. While equity markets are doing well, with a new annual record for the S & P, another one, and that commodities are going back to higher (including oil, up to a few cents zenith 2010), is quite logical that the Euro found some support. And then, with the help of the Chinese, it is much easier for the euro, while it seems almost assume that the Middle Kingdom or purchaser of securities Portuguese (THANK YOU).

question is whether this will be enough to stop the meeting bearish, because so far all the rebounds were good excuses to go short again. Obviously, this will be true if the rating agencies enjoy the tranquility of sitting still for degrading a new member of the eurozone ... For once they do their job after all!

EUR / USD (H4), December 22, 2010

The pivot point of the day is materialized in blue. The first major resistance will lie on $ 1.3200 and a violation I will go along, cautiously. The second resistance (calculated from the pivot point) is at 1.3254. Having a resistance chart 1.3265, 1.3250-1.3265 area of my goal would be bullish day. Of course, EUR / USD could bounce back more strongly, but today? ...

Conversely, if ever the market would test the $ 1.3200 before turning back, I think it would be an excellent entry point short with a return expected on the pivot. and potentially a new attempt to break the 1.3070-1.3100. Below, we will support in the 1.3050, then of course the area is extremely strong and significant $ 1.2970-1.3000.


Even today, some key figures will be published. We have everything to mee the U.S. GDP, but it is then the third and final estimate, no great surprise waiting at least a colossal mistake committed by the U.S. intelligence services in previous estimates. The U.S. GDP is expected to +2.8%.


Visit Twitter to tune-in session!


Good trades!
PS: also follow the latest sales figures in the old USA, as well as changes weekly oil stocks.


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Headstone Writing Gold

EUR / CHF: Swiss Franc New Record as € 1.27! Crude Oil Futures

Shadow of the SNB must be taken into consideration.

Why such an impairment?

Since early November, the single currency has dropped more than 8% against the Swiss franc in almost a straight line. There were several reasons.

course, this weakness of the euro due to the renewal of tensions related to debt issues by peripheral countries: Ireland is at the bottom of the hole, Portugal no longer very far, Spain is still mired in the same housing slump, but for the time saved by its debt ratio is still low. The fact is that Spain is now forced to pay a premium to get lending markets. In this context, the counterparties of the euro can only perform well, which is especially true for the Swiss Franc, which traditionally plays the role of safe haven.

The other reason is the confirmation of the strength of the Swiss business, with exports still strong despite higher prices of their currency, and above all with a very positive domestic consumption.
I was forced to stop my writing lately, but you've probably noticed that I stayed active on Twitter, albeit in a much more concise.

I closed my last short position on EUR / CHF 1.2765 to CHF approach, the previous record low reached in early September, may miss the continuation of the movement, especially since no sign of reversal bull can not be identified at present.




Scenarios to consider

We enter in the holiday season, coupled with extremely low liquidity, including forex. This can cause sessions quite insipid, or conversely very volatile since the players can more easily influence prices. What makes me think that the NBS could exploit it to speak again, after making weapons last summer. The SNB may not have any interest to intervene now, since the European tensions persist, and the result of this fact might last only a few weeks (the NBS has already suffered losses in its past interventions, This is why it is suspicious). Moreover, the President of the Swiss National Bank, Mr. Hildebrand was quoted as saying that the euro could fall to CHF 0.5 in case of contagion from the crisis of government bonds in Europe. Still, the window procedure seems ideal as noted Julius Baer. After the comments last week (possible intervention in case of continued deflationary pressures caused by higher hence the franc), everything seems possible. At least it is only an attempt to bluff, far less costly than intervention in practice.


the beginning of this week, I maintain I prefer shorts without having to open so far . Yes, unfortunately I wound up too fast last week ... Only a crossing bull 1.2800 followed by a close above that level would convince me to go along with the CHF 1.2850 and 1.2930 in the crosshairs (simple technical rebound). With the successful passage of 1.3000 Swiss francs, which would probably along the crossing bullish moving average and 20 sessions, it might be possible to speak of true reversal. Very hypothetical for now.



good trades and good afternoon. Very quiet until Wall Street and no new major expected.



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Aquerious Lagna Amethyst

: Turning bearish after the failure of crossing the $ 90?

The EIA has recently raised its forecast for oil demand growth for 2011, while confirming the increase in consumption in the U.S. over the last quarter of 0.6% over the previous year. At the same time, OPEC decided yet the status quo in its production, and reiterated that a price between 70 and $ 80 was a good price. But we're closer now than $ 90 of that range, and OPEC actually think that current prices should not last. For them, the blame rests on time, while a cold wave prevails on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as the weakness (relative) of the U.S. Dollar. Spend on these considerations.

Oil has found its highest levels since September 2008, in line with market indices finally, and the dreaded 100 per barrel is now just a short distance . Prices are still within a bullish channel clear, with no movement "excessively" bullish.

Crude Oil Futures (JAN2011), Daily

The bulls seem yet to want to take a break. I've been bearish since last week as I mentioned on my Twitter. At the beginning of the week I would monitor the behavior of players in contact with $ 87.00. This is a major support level after successfully stopped the attacks bullish spring.

I marked preference for short time, and I planned to go short again in case of breakage of the support of $ 87.00. The aim would be to drop the $ 86 rally in less than 24 hours to confirm the importance of the movement. Subsequently, I think the potential downside could bring back lessons in the area of $ 82.70-83.00, since the moving average and 20 sessions fail to reverse the trend. And why not $ 80 in January? To do this will require rather uncertain conditions in the markets, but anything is possible.

I favor this scenario, but it will be truly the market showing signs towards this purpose in the early sessions of the week.

Otherwise, if prices are rising again, the passage of $ 88.61 will be a first sign, which should be confirmed by an excess of 90.00 in the wake and the rallying of a new annual high. I have not yet planned orders to take advantage of this possibility, I will detail if needed later in the week.

good trades, good week and good Christmas shopping.

Walk Through Walls Pokemon Silver

EUR / CHF: The market vacillates between 1.3150 and 1.3200

markets have experienced a great first meeting in December, appearing to confirm that the last months of the year is, or at least one of the best trading month. The euro has largely taken while participants placed great hopes in the decisions taken by the ECB to be announced this afternoon (the hopes that the ECB are directly supporting poor students in the area by allowing them to issue debt at rates correct).

At the same time, everything goes well in the sunny Swiss Alps. GDP grew more than expected, despite a decrease of 3.2% in exports caused in part by the higher Swiss franc in recent months. Swiss consumer still seems very dynamic situation while on the job market improves. In November alone, the euro depreciated by 5% against the Swiss franc, and reversal of yesterday is far from catching this movement.

EUR / CHF (2 December 2010)

It is therefore clear that the Swiss Franc has everything to please, but today it is more the euro than the Franc. Much will depend on the ECB and Trichet our country.

Graphically, the pair moving in a range extending from 1.3150 to 1.3200 francs. 1.3200 seem to stop the bulls, so that this level is for me the major intraday resistance.

And conversely, each return on 1.3150 causes the rebound.

Thus, as the situation continues, it is possible to "play" the range, it''s to say buying the bounces on the occurrent 1.3150, and sell them back to the level of 1.3190- CHF 1.3200.

Exceeding these two major levels should be able to open the way for a larger movement, it will mean that the timing is good, ideally after the ECB.

Here's what I look for exceeding levels previously indicated:

- Break of 1.3150 support : a test of 1.3100 during the meeting would be likely, with possible further decline to 1.3070 francs.
- Exceeding 1.3200 (requires that the ECB respond to market expectations): a long position should be able to reach CHF 1.3250-1.3260. I do not allow myself to aim higher in current conditions.


Good trades and good day, sunny I hope.

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