(Update1) I addressed the issue of future farm in August, when the euphoria caused by the fires and drought in Russia. Having arrived late on wheat (the main crop in Russia and most logically impacted on world markets), I chose to refer to corn (first U.S. culture). The increase did not wait very long. I will discuss the futures contract maturing in December on corn tomorrow, I just point out that prices have peaked for now. In case of breach of $ 588, a new bullish phase could be implemented.
Indeed, if grains are again subject to strong upward pressure, because the drought is affecting both the U.S. Great Plains, which is likely harm the amounts collected in respect of winter crops. The offer may be less than expected by the USDA, which the market expects a revised forecast for the next report submitted on November 9. Note that 47% of U.S. crops are in a "good to excellent", against 62% last year, down significant. At the same time, demand remains strong, particularly from China.
On this day chart, it is clear that the reality does Another is that the range, the flat trading, non-event, short of boredom speculator. $ 644-650 each approach has led to a rebound, which is therefore the lower bound of the range in question. The indicators are flat or rising back through the meeting date, very positive for wheat, Bullish aspect seems to me to promote in the coming sessions. My
relatively optimistic view can not be maintained if the output range from below. The output of the blue area should prompt many players to go short with a possible return on the $ 600, but this scenario is currently not the one I prefer.
What I'll watch more, it will be the next test of $ 700 test, which has now been synonymous with failure of the bulls. In contrast, the main positive signal that I note today is the release of bearish channel which evolved during the past few days. Here is what I think is possible to envisage: a new test of $ 700, ideally within an hour of volumes>> If the test is successful, then I am bullish with at least $ 720 in the line of sight and probably $ 730 (very short term, therefore).
For, truly, a new underlying trend is emerging, it will therefore be
>> Update1: 27/10/2010 @ 17:45: The resistance of $ 700 was taken, but can not go much higher yet. Caution is in order.
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| Wheat Futures (December 2010), 10/26/2010 (Daily) |
relatively optimistic view can not be maintained if the output range from below. The output of the blue area should prompt many players to go short with a possible return on the $ 600, but this scenario is currently not the one I prefer.
 |
| Wheat Futures (December 2010), 10/26/2010 (H4) |
What I'll watch more, it will be the next test of $ 700 test, which has now been synonymous with failure of the bulls. In contrast, the main positive signal that I note today is the release of bearish channel which evolved during the past few days. Here is what I think is possible to envisage: a new test of $ 700, ideally within an hour of volumes>> If the test is successful, then I am bullish with at least $ 720 in the line of sight and probably $ 730 (very short term, therefore).
For, truly, a new underlying trend is emerging, it will therefore be
- that courts blithely exceed $ 750 and the contract closed above and quickly take the direction of $ 785 then $ 840, my next major resistance.
- or supply is quite abundant (unlikely now, but the option can not be excluded, especially because sometimes large quantities of grain lost by compilers are found, it can also ship appear when the impact is important), which could result in downward phase in case of breakage of the lower bound of the range, ie $ 644-650 mentioned above.
I'll come back tomorrow on corn, which is, I think, in a configuration even more interesting in full swing upward for several weeks.
In the meantime, good night and good trades.
>> Update1: 27/10/2010 @ 17:45: The resistance of $ 700 was taken, but can not go much higher yet. Caution is in order.
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