Last Friday, the U.S. GDP is perfectly clear according to consensus, + 2%, but can be explained largely by changes in inventories, which, after all, is not inconsistent with the approach of Christmas. But it still shows that the American economy is not quite "out of the wood" as saying the Anglo-Saxon.
But Friday is also the Canadian GDP has been published. This is done on a monthly basis in th northern neighbors. And again, little surprise, with an increase of 0.3%, as expected (these are figures for the month of August).
The overall movement of the exchange market was also repeated on the USD / CAD, and the Canadian Dollar (the Loonie, the bird that appears on Canadian coins) appreciated without reaching break the large bracket on the C $ 1.0170. I went to purchase this level several times Friday, but the gains have not been consistent. This Sunday evening, the Loonie regains its progression, with a decidedly unloved dollar, while the week will be the densest in the new year: ISM employment figures, U.S. elections, especially measures Fed.
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| USD / CAD, 10/31/2010 (30Mn) |
It is important to note that the USD / CAD is not volatile, and this past Just over a year now. In 2010, the lowest was shot in April at C $ 0.9930, and the highest end of May to C $ 1.0850. The movements are of very low amplitude, and the courts always oscillates near parity between the two dollars. With a globally weak dollar, rising commodities of the country's preference for healthy (low debt, export economy ...), the Loonie could just in fact benefit. Remains whether the situation will continue after the Fed has communicated its plan of action and specified the exact content of the QE2.
Under a downward trendline, with indicators turned down, and after multiple failures rebound Friday, it is clear that management is most likely due south. This does not mean I'll blindly go short. Because courts truly reach the lower area in which exchanges take place over a year, so unless a terrible phase for the Dollar latches, the probabilities Bounce seem more important than a continuation of the fall.
I'll leave it at that tonight, because the peaceful sleep is worth a small gain ...
For tomorrow I will be watching 2 supports key areas: C $ 1.0170 and C $ 1.0150-1.0155 . These levels are highly likely to cause rebound, I am of the opinion to go to buy at these levels if conditions are favorable . Furthermore, these levels are close enough to afford to place stoploss little distant.
It will still be wary of a possible acceleration of the downtrend, I do not favor at the moment.
My goals are very ambitious, because after all, it is likely that the attention remains on Monday.
I aim to return the C $ 1.0200 initially, before a possible test of C $ 1.0250.
If the U.S. Dollar managed to exceed this level of 1.0250, we can certainly talk about change in trend.
Good trades and tomorrow, for a wonderful November!
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